U.S. President Donald Trump speaks during the 80th session of the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) at the UN headquarters on Sept. 23, 2025 in New York City.
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Shale oil executives say President Donald Trump is hurting investment in the oil patch, and are giving a grim outlook for the future of the industry that turned the U.S. into the largest crude producer in the world.
The executives’ anonymous comments were published in a quarterly survey of oil and gas companies by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas this week. The 139 companies that responded operate predominantly in Texas as well as northern Louisiana and southern New Mexico.
Trump has championed fossil fuels while attacking the renewable energy industry since taking office in January. His One Big Beautiful Bill Act, passed by Congress in July, delivered virtually everything the oil lobby wanted.
But Trump’s push for lower crude prices, higher tariffs, and the resulting uncertainty caused by his “stroke of pen” policies are hurting investment, executives at independent oil and gas producers told the Dallas Fed.
Nearly 80% of executives who participated in the survey said they have delayed investment decisions in response to heightened uncertainty about the future price of oil and the cost of producing crude.
“We have begun the twilight of shale,” one executive said, pointing to layoffs by the thousands and industry consolidation under big companies like Exxon Mobil. “The writing is on the wall,” the unnamed manager said.
‘Drilling is going to disappear’
Another executive warned that “drilling is going to disappear” as Trump pushes for $40 per barrel crude oil at the same time his steel tariffs are raising costs. U.S. crude oil prices are currently trading around $65 per barrel, just above the level producers need to drill profitably.
The shale industry has been “gutted” over the course of the Biden and Trump administrations, another executive said. Political hostility from Biden chased away capital from the industry, the person said. Economic ignorance from Trump is “finishing the job,” they said.
“The U.S. shale business is broken,” the executive said.
The Trump administration has effectively aligned itself with the decision by OPEC+ to increase oil supply, “kneecapping U.S. producers in the process,” the person said.
“Guided by a U.S. Department of Energy that tells them what they want to hear instead of hard facts, they operate with little understanding of shale economics,” the same executive said.
Regulatory costs
A White House spokesperson said Trump is “rolling back burdensome regulations that were killing the industry,” crediting the president’s policies with record production in June. Energy Secretary Chris Wright has repeatedly argued that the administration is making drilling cheaper by cuting red tape.
But 57% of executives surveyed by the Dallas Fed said regulatory changes since January have reduced their breakeven costs by less than $1 per barrel.
Another executive warned that Trump’s attacks on the renewable energy industry will come back to haunt the oil and gas sector in a few years. Investors are avoiding energy due to volatility and the “stroke of pen” risk that the White House wields over energy projects, the person said.
“Life is long, and the sword being wielded against the renewables industry right now will likely boomerang back in 3.5 years against traditional energy,” they said, warning the industry will face harsher methane penalties, permitting restrictions and environmental reviews when Democrats return to power.
