Bitcoin has surged over 33% since its April 2024 halving, where the block reward dropped from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This mechanism, built into the Bitcoin network, is meant to reduce new supply and maintain scarcity. However, this time, the usual four-year market cycle seems to be shifting.
Data shows that Bitcoin reached a new all-time high above $109,000 on Jan. 20, just 273 days after the halving. In previous cycles, it took significantly longer—546 days after the 2021 halving, and 518 days after the 2017 one.
Several analysts point to institutional interest and the growth of Bitcoin ETFs as key reasons for this acceleration. Vugar Usi Zade, the chief operating officer at Bitget, said that the current institutional demand, combined with the halving-induced scarcity, could push Bitcoin past $90,000 again and potentially to new highs. He added that while scarcity provides a strong foundation for growth, the timeline for price reaction isn’t fixed and depends on broader market movements.
Enmanuel Cardozo, a market analyst at the asset tokenization platform Brickken, agreed that institutions are playing a bigger role. He mentioned firms like Strategy and Tether and suggested that their growing involvement may shorten the traditional cycle. For the 2024 halving, Cardozo estimated that if trends follow previous cycles, a market bottom would usually be expected around Q3 2025, with a peak in mid-2026. But, due to increased liquidity and a more mature market, he believes these milestones could come earlier.
Cardozo also pointed out that investors are being cautious due to a mix of past experiences and ongoing economic uncertainty. “So, even though Bitcoin’s showing resilience, I think the mix of past experiences, economic uncertainty, and this selling pressure is keeping investors on the sidelines, waiting for a stronger green light before they jump in,” he said.
Global economic concerns, especially tensions between the U.S. and China over trade, are also playing into market uncertainty. Analysts say these geopolitical factors are shaping investor sentiment. Meanwhile, monetary policy decisions, particularly those by the U.S. Federal Reserve, could also influence Bitcoin’s path. A potential interest rate cut expected in May or June could introduce more liquidity into the system, which some believe would benefit Bitcoin.
Despite external pressures, Bitcoin’s price movement since the halving has shown unusual speed compared to previous cycles. The growing role of institutions and financial products like ETFs appears to be reshaping how the market responds to halving events. While historical patterns still offer a rough guide, new factors are changing the pace.
