ARK Invest has significantly revised its price forecast for Bitcoin, projecting a potential rise to $2.4 million by the end of 2030. This marks an increase from its previous bull case target of $1.5 million, reflecting growing institutional interest and Bitcoin’s evolving role as “digital gold.”
According to ARK research analyst David Puell, the firm now estimates Bitcoin’s bear and base case scenarios at $500,000 and $1.2 million, respectively, up from earlier projections of $300,000 and $710,000.
These predictions are based on various factors, including Bitcoin’s total addressable market (TAM) and its penetration rate within the broader financial landscape, which is valued at approximately $200 trillion.
Puell noted that institutional investment is a primary driver behind the bullish outlook, with a potential penetration rate of 6.5% into the financial market. Additionally, Bitcoin’s status as a “safe haven” asset in emerging markets is contributing to its appeal, as it offers protection against inflation and currency devaluation.
The report highlights that if Bitcoin reaches the projected $2.4 million price point, its market capitalization would soar to $49.2 trillion, surpassing the current combined GDP of the United States and China. This valuation would position Bitcoin to potentially overtake gold, which has a market cap of $22.5 trillion.
Despite the ambitious targets, achieving even ARK’s lower estimates would require Bitcoin to grow at a compounded annual growth rate of 32% for the bear case and 53% for the base case by 2030. Bitcoin has recently rebounded from a low of $75,160 in 2025, trading around $93,704 as of writing.
