We’ve heard endless predictions about how AI chatbots will transform work, but data paints a much calmer picture—at least for now.
Despite huge and ongoing advancements in generative AI, the massive wave it was supposed to create in the world of work looks more like a ripple so far.
Researchers Anders Humlum (University of Chicago) and Emilie Vestergaard (University of Copenhagen) didn’t just rely on anecdotes. They dug deep, connecting responses from two big surveys (late 2023 and 2024) with official, detailed records about jobs and pay in Denmark.
The pair zoomed in on around 25,000 people working in 7,000 different places, covering 11 jobs thought to be right in the path of AI disruption.
Everyone’s using AI chatbots for work, but where are the benefits?
What they found confirms what many of us see: AI chatbots are everywhere in Danish workplaces now. Most bosses are actually encouraging staff to use them, a real turnaround from the early days when companies were understandably nervous about things like data privacy.
Almost four out of ten employers have even rolled out their own in-house chatbots, and nearly a third of employees have had some formal training on these tools.
When bosses gave the nod, the number of staff using chatbots practically doubled, jumping from 47% to 83%. It also helped level the playing field a bit. That gap between men and women using chatbots? It shrank noticeably when companies actively encouraged their use, especially when they threw in some training.
So, the tools are popular, companies are investing, people are getting trained… but the big economic shift? It seems to be missing in action.
Using statistical methods to compare people who used AI chatbots for work with those who didn’t, both before and after ChatGPT burst onto the scene, the researchers found… well, basically nothing.
“Precise zeros,” the researchers call their findings. No significant bump in pay, no change in recorded work hours, across all 11 job types they looked at. And they’re pretty confident about this – the numbers rule out any average effect bigger than just 1%.
This wasn’t just a blip, either. The lack of impact held true even for the keen beans who jumped on board early, those using chatbots daily, or folks working where the boss was actively pushing the tech.
Looking at whole workplaces didn’t change the story; places with lots of chatbot users didn’t see different trends in hiring, overall wages, or keeping staff compared to places using them less.
Productivity gains: More of a gentle nudge than a shove
Why the big disconnect? Why all the hype and investment if it’s not showing up in paychecks or job stats? The study flags two main culprits: the productivity boosts aren’t as huge as hoped in the real world, and what little gains there are aren’t really making their way into wages.
Sure, people using AI chatbots for work felt they were helpful. They mentioned better work quality and feeling more creative. But the number one benefit? Saving time.
However, when the researchers crunched the numbers, the average time saved was only about 2.8% of a user’s total work hours. That’s miles away from the huge 15%, 30%, even 50% productivity jumps seen in controlled lab-style experiments (RCTs) involving similar jobs.
Why the difference? A few things seem to be going on. Those experiments often focus on jobs or specific tasks where chatbots really shine (like coding help or basic customer service responses). This study looked at a wider range, including jobs like teaching where the benefits might be smaller.
The researchers stress the importance of what they call “complementary investments”. People whose companies encouraged chatbot use and provided training actually did report bigger benefits – saving more time, improving quality, and feeling more creative. This suggests that just having the tool isn’t enough; you need the right support and company environment to really unlock its potential.
And even those modest time savings weren’t padding wallets. The study reckons only a tiny fraction – maybe 3% to 7% – of the time saved actually showed up as higher earnings. It might be down to standard workplace inertia, or maybe it’s just harder to ask for a raise based on using a tool your boss hasn’t officially blessed, especially when many people started using them off their own bat.
Making new work, not less work
One fascinating twist is that AI chatbots aren’t just about doing old work tasks faster. They seem to be creating new tasks too. Around 17% of people using them said they had new workloads, mostly brand new types of tasks.
This phenomenon happened more often in workplaces that encouraged chatbot use. It even spilled over to people not using the tools – about 5% of non-users reported new tasks popping up because of AI, especially teachers having to adapt assignments or spot AI-written homework.
What kind of new tasks? Things like figuring out how to weave AI into daily workflows, drafting content with AI help, and importantly, dealing with the ethical side and making sure everything’s above board. It hints that companies are still very much in the ‘figuring it out’ phase, spending time and effort adapting rather than just reaping instant rewards.
What’s the verdict on the work impact of AI chatbots?
The researchers are careful not to write off generative AI completely. They see pathways for it to become more influential over time, especially as companies get better at integrating it and maybe as those “new tasks” evolve.
But for now, their message is clear: the current reality doesn’t match the hype about a massive, immediate job market overhaul.
“Despite rapid adoption and substantial investments… our key finding is that AI chatbots have had minimal impact on productivity and labor market outcomes to date,” the researchers conclude.
It brings to mind that old quote about the early computer age: seen everywhere, except in the productivity stats. Two years on from ChatGPT’s launch kicking off the fastest tech adoption we’ve ever seen, its actual mark on jobs and pay looks surprisingly light.
The revolution might still be coming, but it seems to be taking its time.
See also: Claude Integrations: Anthropic adds AI to your favourite work tools
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