Bank of America sees MP Materials as an “unmatched vehicle” for exposure to rare earths, significantly increasing its earnings estimates on the back of the miner’s recent deal with the Defense Department. The bank hiked its price target for MP ahead of the company’s second-quarter financial results Thursday. It now sees MP shares rising to $78, indicating about 14% upside from Tuesday’s close of $68.39. Its previous target stood at $42. MP shares have more than doubled since the Defense Department agreed on July 10 to buy a $400 million stake in the company, set a price floor for rare earths and guarantee offtake. The Pentagon deal was followed by Apple agreeing to invest $500 million in MP’s production capacity. MP’s partnership with the Defense Department “provides a much higher degree of longer-term certainty,” analyst Lawson Winder told clients in a Wednesday note. MP’s earnings should increase as the U.S. price for neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide, the main ingredient for rare earth magnets, is expected to increase 33%, according to Bank of America. The bank now sees MP booking an adjusted loss per share of 5 cents this year, down from 17 cents previously. The miner should post an adjusted profit $1.03 per share in 2026, up from 54 cents before, according to the bank’s revised estimates. “We see MP as an unmatched vehicle for exposure to growing RE magnet demand,” Winder told clients.
