Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen billions in outflows in recent weeks, but Bloomberg’s senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says investors — particularly boomers — are proving to be stronger holders than many expected.
Speaking on TheStreet Crypto Roundtable with Scott Melker, Balchunas broke down the numbers behind Bitcoin ETF flows, explaining that despite a sharp price drop, most investors are holding firm.
“The ETFs collectively took in $40 billion cumulative flows,” he said. “That’s now down to $35 billion, so you had $5 billion of outflows. But if you average out the assets, that’s 5% of the assets leaving. Flip that around — 95% of the assets stuck.”
He pointed out that some of these outflows were driven by hedge funds unwinding basis trades, rather than traditional long-term investors exiting. “If you’re talking about RIA boomers, those kind of regular people, you might be looking at 97 to 98% of them hanging in there,” Balchunas said.
According to data from Farside, Bitcoin ETFs have seen $35.4 billion in total net inflows, despite persistent outflows from Grayscale’s GBTC, which has lost $22.5 billion. BlackRock’s IBIT leads with $39.2 billion in inflows, while Fidelity’s FBTC follows with $11.3 billion.
“In 2001, during the financial bubble dot-com crisis, only a quarter of the money came out of the SPY ETF. Even in that case, 75% stuck,” he explained. “So I sort of look at these other selloffs to gauge what a good core would be. You’re at 95%, arguably 97%, of the boomers. That’s pretty solid.”
Balchunas also discussed Bitcoin’s price movements in relation to ETF flows and macroeconomic factors.
He noted that when BlackRock filed for its Bitcoin ETF, Bitcoin was trading around $30,000. It then surged to $70,000, a move he attributed largely to the ETF launches. From there, the price climbed to $100,000, which he believes was fueled by excitement over Donald Trump’s pro-crypto stance.
“Bitcoin was $30,000 when the ETF was filed from BlackRock. It went up to $70,000, in my opinion, largely on the ETFs just staying out of trouble. And then from $70,000 to $100,000 was Trump hype,” Balchunas added.
Now that Bitcoin has retraced some of those gains, Balchunas suggests that $70,000 may act as a strong price floor. “The 70 to 100 move was largely on Trump, and then you throw in the stock markets going down, which puts everyone in a bad mood. It’s not bad to be at, what, $85,000?” he added.
