In the crypto market, bold predictions aren’t just talk – they’re backed by real dollars, often through option plays that resemble lottery tickets offering outsized upside for relatively small costs.
The stand-out as of writing is the Deribit-listed $300,000 strike bitcoin call option expiring on June 26. Theoretically, this call is a bet that BTC’s spot price will triple to over $300,000 by the end of the first half of the year.
Over 5,000 contracts were active in the June $300K call at press time, with a notional open interest of $484 million. That makes it the second-most popular option bet in the crucial June expiry, trailing only the $110K call.
Deribit is the world’s leading crypto options exchange, accounting for over 75% of the global options activity. On Deribit, one options contract represents 1 BTC. Quarterly expiries, such as the one due on June 26, drive heightened market activity and volatility, with traders using these deadlines to hedge positions, lock in gains, or speculate on the next price moves.
“Perhaps, people like buying lottery tickets. As evidenced by the call skew, there are always folks that want the hyperinflation hedge,” Spencer Hallarn, a derivatives trader at crypto market maker GSR, said, explaining the high open interest in the so-called out-of-the-money (OTM) call at the $300K strike.
Deep OTM calls, also called wings, require a large move in the underlying asset’s price to become profitable and, hence, are significantly cheaper compared to those closer to or below the asset’s going market rate. However, the payoff is huge if the market rallies, which makes them similar to buying lottery tickets with slim odds but potential for a big payout.
Deribit’s BTC options market has experienced similar flows during previous bull cycles, but those bets rarely gained enough popularity to rank as the second-most preferred play in quarterly expiries.
The chart shows that the June 26 expiry is the largest among all settlements due this year, and the $300K call has the second-highest open interest buildup in the June expiry options.
Explaining the chunky notional open interest in the $300K call, GSR’s Trader Simranjeet Singh said, “I suspect this is mostly an accumulation of relatively cheap wings betting on broader U.S. reg narrative being pro-crypto and the ‘wingy possibility’ (no pun intended) of a BTC strategic reserve that was punted around at the start of the administration.”
On Friday, Senator Cynthia Lummis said in a speech that she’s “particularly pleased with President Trump’s support of her BITCOIN Act.
