President Donald Trump came to office earlier this year promising sweeping change on the economy and what investors hoped would be a pro-growth wave that would propel markets higher.
It hasn’t quite worked out that way.
Trump’s aggressive, volatile stance on tariffs targeted at adversaries and allies alike has unsettled global markets and thrown Wall Street off balance. Despite a rebound in the latter half of April as he signaled willingness to pursue trade deals and pulled back from his most draconian version of “reciprocal” tariffs, most assets remain lower in Trump’s first 100 days in office. The one exception is gold, as investors have sought safety.
So, what now? Strategists predict more of the same for the time being: Most see a volatile, headline-driven stock market for the next several months, at least.
“I still very much believe that the primary driver of equities right now is going to be all these headlines coming out of Washington,” Michael Kantrowitz, Piper Sandler’s chief investment strategist, said in an interview with Yahoo Finance. His base-case assumption is that tariff rhetoric will continue, but the administration could strike some trade deals, cushioning against further downside but limiting gains.
As for gold, as long as policy uncertainty persists, investors will buy it.
Read more: How to invest in gold in 4 steps
James Steel, HSBC chief precious metals analyst, said in an interview, “One of the things that presses gold higher is economic policy uncertainty. It’s not necessarily whether the policy is good or bad … I think if we got some clarity on the tariff issue, that would help undermine it.”
All of that implies that the next 100 days could be similar to the last 100. The focus will remain on tariffs until and unless the tax bill sausage-making heats up in Washington.
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